AGP Executive Report

Climate & Food Security: El Niño is looking more likely to form, with warnings that Asia—including Indonesia—could face hotter conditions, drought stress, and knock-on impacts for crops, water, and power. Waste & Air Pollution: A new study links China’s 2018 plastic waste import ban to a rerouting of trash to Indonesia, where open dumping sites saw higher fine-particle pollution and greater health risks. Natural Resources Policy: President Prabowo signed PP 24/2026 to route exports of strategic commodities (starting with coal, palm oil, and ferroalloy) through state firms, aiming to stabilize domestic supply and push value-added. Infrastructure & Environment: Indonesia is inviting Russian firms to help build rail corridors across Sumatra, Sulawesi, and Kalimantan, with promises of low-carbon rail and safer, more modern transport. Disaster Resilience: BRICS delegates praised Odisha’s near-zero casualty disaster approach, highlighting community early warning and rapid response models relevant to Indonesia’s own hazard planning. Public Health & Nutrition: Indonesia says it has completed 222 kitchen facilities for Prabowo’s free nutritious meal program across 30 provinces, including 3T areas.

Climate Justice & Waste: Indonesia’s Environment Ministry says the waste crisis is driving global warming via methane, noting 51 million tons of waste yearly and 74% not managed well; it’s pushing an “ASRI Movement” and an “ecological repentance” push to cut waste at the household level and speed a climate justice bill. Coastal Protection: Indonesia is shifting from “giant seawall only” thinking to a hybrid northern Java defense—estuary protection, groundwater control, tighter spatial planning, and mangrove restoration—to curb abrasion, tidal flooding, and subsidence. Waste-to-Energy Push: The government is accelerating waste-to-energy (PSEL) sites, with three groundbreakings soon and more in partner selection, targeting operations in 2028 to reduce landfill pressure and cut emissions. El Niño Watch: WMO-linked reporting warns El Niño is likely to develop this year and could intensify heat and extreme weather, raising drought and flood risks. Biodiversity & Finance: A new study warns biodiversity loss could raise sovereign borrowing costs and trigger debt stress, with nature risks not priced into current ratings. Rare Species: Indonesia’s blue-fronted lorikeet is photographed again for only the second time in over a century, spotlighting urgent conservation needs.

Waste & Climate Policy: Indonesia is accelerating waste-to-energy (PSEL) facilities in about 30 locations, with three sites set for groundbreaking soon and more moving into partner selection, aiming for operations from 2028 to cut landfill pressure and support emissions reduction. Household Climate Justice: The Environment Ministry launched the ASRI Movement, urging ecological “repentance” starting at home to tackle the triple planetary crisis and reduce waste generation. Waste Emergency: Indonesia says waste has topped 51 million tons annually, with 74% still unmanaged and many landfills exceeding capacity; it calls for separating organic and inorganic waste to curb methane from dumping. El Niño Watch: Meteorology officials warn a powerful El Niño could strengthen through the year, raising global temperatures and increasing drought and extreme weather risks. Marine Safety: A container vessel sank off Batam; all nine crew were rescued and authorities report no oil pollution yet. Pollution Context: Jakarta’s air quality remains a concern as regional cities rank among the world’s worst for unhealthy air. Mercury Crackdown: Environmental groups praised Indonesian police and port customs for intercepting illegal mercury shipments hidden in carpet rolls. Biodiversity Finance Risk: Research warns markets may be underpricing biodiversity loss, potentially raising sovereign borrowing costs and debt risks.

Climate Risk Watch: NOAA warns this year’s shift toward a “Super El Niño” could be unusually fast, raising the odds of extreme heat and disrupted rainfall patterns. Biodiversity & Finance: A new study says markets are underpricing nature loss, with a biodiversity-adjusted sovereign ratings model estimating ecosystem damage could lift global sovereign debt interest costs by $162bn a year. Illegal Mercury Crackdown: Environmental groups in the Philippines and Indonesia are pushing tougher action on illegal mercury trade after Indonesian police seized about 760 bottles of liquid mercury smuggled in carpet rolls. Marine Protection Under Pressure: NGOs warn offshore oil and gas expansion in countries including Indonesia overlaps major marine biodiversity hotspots, with a third of licensed areas touching protected waters. Indonesia Waste Action: Surabaya was picked as a pilot for a river plastic reduction partnership, targeting the Tebu and Mrutu rivers with cleanup, filtration, mapping, and community waste-sorting support. Governance & Food Program Fallout: Indonesia’s free nutritious meals scheme faces corruption arrests tied to the National Nutrition Agency, with prosecutors alleging misuse in 2025–2026 management. High-Seas Squid Fishing: A report by the Environmental Justice Foundation links unregulated squid fleets to environmental destruction and labor abuses across major fishing regions.

El Niño & food security: The UN and WMO warn El Niño is likely to return with high odds through late 2026, raising risks of hotter heatwaves, drought, and flooding that could hit Asia’s crops and push up food prices. Indonesia wildlife & illegal trade: Indonesia intercepted a mercury shipment allegedly destined for illegal Philippine gold mining, highlighting the toxic trail of Southeast Asia’s illicit extraction. Marine conservation (local stewardship): Communities across eastern Indonesia’s Wallacea region are reviving customary marine protection—like seasonal closures, sanctions, and mangrove restoration—to curb destructive fishing and habitat loss. Governance & public nutrition: Indonesia’s National Nutrition Agency (BGN) pledges reforms to restore trust in the Free Nutritious Meals program after a corruption case, including tighter oversight and food-safety supervision. Urban air & mobility: Jakarta’s Car Free Day is expanding, with the governor saying it’s drawing visitors from Singapore and Malaysia—an indirect push for cleaner, healthier public spaces. Circular economy: A new global reuse symbol (PR3) was launched to help standardize reusable packaging and reuse systems beyond recycling.

Cybersecurity for finance: Indonesia’s OJK urged banks and fintechs to harden digital transaction security as cybercrime rises, citing a surge in digital payments (14.82 billion transactions in Q1 2026) and AI-enabled fraud risks. Climate and health in cities: A new study-backed initiative is improving sanitation and stormwater systems in Indonesia to cut down water contamination and protect children during heavier downpours. Blue carbon under pressure: A global synthesis warns that mangroves, seagrass and salt marsh “blue carbon” protection is shifting as climate change and land-use change expand risk zones. Waste, but make it faith-based: UNDP Indonesia is expanding GRADASI, an interfaith waste-sorting movement that turns recyclables into charity and supports local circular economy activities. Tourism with halal standards: Indonesia’s tourism ministry says halal certification for tourism village businesses is scaling up fast, aiming to boost confidence and local income. Biosecurity push: Indonesia’s quarantine agency is seeking FAO support to strengthen biosecurity, lab capacity, traceability, and early warning systems. El Niño warning: UN and WMO reporting flags a likely return of El Niño, with heat and extreme weather risks that could hit food and water systems. Biodiversity note: Indonesia’s rare wildlife conservation continues, including new sightings and protection efforts such as rare Sumatran tiger cub arrivals.

El Niño Food Shock: The WMO warns El Niño is forming with an 80% chance by June–August and could bring hotter, drier conditions that disrupt crop planting across Asia, including Indonesia’s palm oil areas—raising food and supply risks. Blue Economy Push (Papua): Papua’s governor says the province will build a “blue economy” by downstreaming fisheries—processing, ports, and distribution—to lift coastal livelihoods beyond just catching fish. Marine Protection Under Pressure (Bintan): A new NGO, Blue Lantern, is backing the East Bintan marine protected area, citing weak funding and heavy industry impacts like sediment pollution from past bauxite mining. Biodiversity Win: Indonesia’s blue-fronted lorikeet has been rediscovered on Buru after a century of near silence, offering hope for conservation of a tiny-range endemic. Plastic Pollution Warning: A new study highlights how “recycled” plastic often ends up burned overseas, driving toxic air pollution and health harms. Governance & Climate Resilience (BRICS DRR): BRICS disaster-risk talks in Puri stress early warning, community-based preparedness, and climate-smart infrastructure—relevant as Indonesia faces more extreme weather.

Super El Niño Watch: The WMO says El Niño is taking shape with an 80% chance between June–August 2026 and ~90% through at least November, raising risks of drought, heavy rain, heatwaves and flooding—worse in a warming world. Biodiversity Update: Indonesia’s Blue-fronted Lorikeet (last seen since 2014) has been rediscovered in remote Mount Kapalatmada highlands, after being “lost” for decades, highlighting how habitat pressure and limited surveys can hide species. Wildlife & Misinformation: A viral “Borneo pygmy elephant” trend is partly AI-made, but the real species remains endangered in northeastern Borneo—another reminder to verify wildlife claims. Forest Fire Response: Indonesia is ramping up firefighting across Sumatra (Aceh, Riau, Jambi, South Sumatra), with rapid hotspot response and extra cooling in peatlands. Plastic & Health: Reporting warns that “recycled” plastic often ends up burned or exported to places with weak waste controls, driving air pollution and health harms. Energy Demand for AI: Indonesia’s PLN is signing major power deals with data-center operators (including BDx’s 1.2GW total), underscoring rising electricity and water pressures from AI infrastructure. Regional Resilience Talks: BRICS DRR meetings in Odisha focus on early warning systems, nature-based solutions and community-based disaster risk reduction, with Indonesia among participants.

El Niño Watch: The UN’s weather agency (WMO) says El Niño is likely to form soon (80% before September, up to 90% later), raising the odds of extreme heat, drought, and heavier rainfall—Indonesia is explicitly in the risk mix. Wildfire in Protected Areas: Mount Rinjani National Park’s savanna zone caught fire on June 2; officials say dry-season conditions and limited firefighting resources are slowing control. Biodiversity Baseline for Deep Seas: Researchers are mapping life on Indonesia’s remote tropical seamounts, building early baseline data on species and how communities change with depth and habitat. Waste Crisis Pressure (Bali): Bali’s waste management is struggling as only a small share of daily waste is handled; confusion over new rules is reportedly pushing some residents to burn or dump waste into drains. Tourism Beyond Bali: Indonesia’s tourism ministry is pushing investment outside Bali to spread jobs and growth across other destinations. BRICS DRR Meeting (Indonesia-linked): A BRICS Disaster Risk Reduction working group meeting in Puri, Odisha (June 3–5) will focus on early warning, resilient infrastructure, and nature-based solutions, with Indonesia participating.

Climate Risk Watch: The UN weather agency WMO says El Niño is developing and warns of a moderate to possibly strong event, with above-average temperatures likely from June–August and a high chance it persists to November—raising risks of drought, heavy rain, heatwaves, and even stronger extreme weather across regions including Indonesia. Indonesia Climate Policy: Indonesia launched a new seagrass “blue carbon” mitigation plan, aiming to boost carbon storage from seagrass meadows and fold it into greenhouse gas reduction goals. Green Finance: Indonesia and the Global Green Growth Institute plan to mobilize US$2 billion in green investment by 2030 through the Green Indonesia Future Initiative. Food Security & Water: Indonesia reports 82.73% physical completion of its regional irrigation upgrade program, targeting improvements across nearly 20,000 hectares to strengthen food self-sufficiency. Biodiversity & Conservation: A GEF-backed effort led by IUCN will support community-led ecosystem resilience and biodiversity conservation, with Indonesia-relevant lessons for landscape management. Palm Oil Skills: Indonesia will fund 5,000 palm oil industry scholarships this year via BPDP to build more productive and sustainability-focused talent.

El Niño Watch: The UN weather agency says El Niño is likely to return soon, with an 80% chance of forming by June–August 2026 and up to 90% odds of lasting into November—raising risks of heat stress, drought, and extreme rain. Biodiversity in Focus: A motion-camera recorded a Sumatran orangutan using a human-made canopy bridge to cross a public road in North Sumatra—an early sign of how wildlife corridors can reduce deadly human-wildlife conflict. Wildlife Rescue: A mobile veterinary unit is treating a critically endangered Sumatran elephant in the Leuser ecosystem, tackling stab wounds and infection in remote terrain. Conservation & Community: In West Java, a women’s collective turns locally found plants into forest-inspired textile motifs, helping protect Javan gibbons by building pride and conservation value around habitat species. Climate & Disaster Prep: BRICS disaster-risk delegates from 11 countries, including Indonesia, will meet in Puri, Odisha (June 3–5) to push sustainable DRR financing and early-warning approaches. Tourism Pressure: Indonesia is urging investors to spread tourism investment beyond Bali to support more balanced, sustainable growth. Energy & Data Demand: STT GDC warns AI-driven data centers need reliable electricity and competitive power prices, while Indonesia’s coal exports in Jan–Apr fell 6.7% year-on-year.

Forest Fire Preparedness: Riau Province has put 11 regions on forest and land fire emergency alert ahead of the dry season, aiming to tighten coordination among local, provincial, and central responders. Coastal Climate Risk: Indonesia’s Java northern coast faces rising sea levels and land subsidence, putting more communities at risk as conditions worsen. El Niño Response: Indonesia is accelerating rice planting in Lamongan to counter El Niño impacts. Disaster Resilience (Regional): BRICS disaster risk reduction delegates from 11 countries will meet in Puri, Odisha (June 3–5), focusing on resilient infrastructure, anticipatory response, and financing for disaster preparedness. Wildlife Conservation: Thousands of green sea turtle hatchlings made it to the sea in a conservation win. Climate Finance Debate: A new analysis questions whether the world’s most ambitious coal phase-out deal is failing—and what that means for climate finance. Indonesia Environment Watch note: The week’s Indonesia-specific items skew toward fire readiness, coastal hazards, and climate-linked food planning.

Coastal Flood Risk in Bali: Indonesia’s meteorology agency issued an early warning for coastal flooding along Bali’s southern shores, linked to higher-than-normal sea levels from a full-moon effect, with impacts expected to linger until June 5. Jakarta Weather Watch: BMKG forecast rain across Jakarta on Monday afternoon, with light rain building to heavier showers and a BPBD reminder to prepare for possible flooding. Marine Conservation Win: Thousands of green sea turtle hatchlings began their journey to the sea after egg relocation efforts, highlighting how warming seas and rising tides threaten nesting sites. Climate Finance Shift: An Indonesian student team is pushing a parametric catastrophe bond idea to move flood-risk liquidity to capital markets and ring-fence returns for upstream reforestation, after major losses from recent Sumatra flooding. Palm Emissions Progress: Golden Agri-Resources reported a 4.6% emissions cut in 2025, with more renewable energy use, methane capture plants, and expanded smallholder support. Biodiversity Research: A decade-long study points to Indonesia as a haven for the world’s biggest sharks, underscoring the need to protect key habitats. Online Safety Policy: Malaysia began enforcing a ban on social media accounts for children under 16, requiring age verification—an approach also being discussed across the region, including Indonesia.

Trade & Oceans: A WTO fishing-subsidy deal is already in force, but the next phase (“Fish 2”) could stall if India, Indonesia, or the US don’t move forward—raising risks for overfishing and illegal, unreported, and unregulated activity. Biodiversity & Nature Finance: The GEF council approved a final $144.3m disbursement under GEF-8, backing ocean ecosystem protection, biodiversity conservation, and landscape restoration with major co-financing. Indonesia’s Export Governance: Starting June 1, natural-resource exporters must report export activities to PT Danantara Sumberdaya Indonesia (DSI) via CEISA 4.0, beginning with coal, ferroalloys, and palm oil. Energy Transition: A proposal argues the UAE should back offshore wind with Indonesia instead of expanding offshore gas—aiming to strengthen long-term energy security. Reef & Wildlife Recovery: Community-led conservation is helping species rebound, including Indonesia’s coral gardening efforts. Public Health & Food: Research suggests guava juice may help iron supplements work better and reduce anemia risk. Disaster & Safety: Heavy rains are threatening rescue progress in a Laos flooded cave where two people remain missing. Tourism & Halal: Indonesia is accelerating halal certification for MSMEs in 1,500 tourism villages, while Prambanan Temple readiness is checked ahead of school holidays.

Coral Reef Protection: A new study tracked 700+ divers at popular sites in the Philippines and Indonesia (including Bali) and found nearly 5,000 reef contacts; about 41% caused visible harm like snapping coral or kicking up sediment, even among “responsible” divers who thought they were careful. Climate Impacts in Indonesia: An expedition reports Oceania’s last tropical glaciers in Papua (Puncak Jaya) are collapsing fast—Indonesia’s tropical glaciers have lost most ice mass since 1980, with remaining glaciers expected to vanish before the decade ends. Disaster & Safety: BMKG warns of waves up to 4 meters in parts of Indonesian waters through June 2, urging fishermen and shipping operators to watch wind and wave thresholds. Flood Aftermath in Aceh: In North Aceh, uncleared debris from the 2025 Sumatra floods caught fire again, threatening nearby survivor homes as dry logs and strong winds fuel repeated flare-ups. Food & Livelihoods: The Agriculture Ministry is monitoring live chicken prices after reports they fall below the reference Rp19,500/kg in some regions, aiming to protect smallholders. Aquaculture Push: Indonesia’s Area-Based Shrimp Farming model in Central Java highlights industrialized aquaculture with intake, wastewater treatment, and disease monitoring to reduce marine pollution risks. Tourism Beyond Bali: Indonesia renews efforts to attract investment to tourism projects outside Bali to spread growth more evenly nationwide.

Indonesia–France Deals: President Prabowo’s Paris visit produced four commercial agreements worth US$3.5bn across energy security, trade and defense, alongside a new France-Indonesia High-Level Business Council meant to deepen investment and innovation ties. Renewables in Indonesia: Indonesia inaugurated key facilities for its first wind energy conversion project in Batam, supporting the Tennet 2GW HVDC effort and signaling a push for cleaner power and greener industry. Climate Risk for Asia: A new warning flags a possible Super El Niño that could intensify drought, strain hydropower, disrupt farming and hit water-intensive manufacturing—raising stakes for Indonesia’s climate and energy planning. Marine Ecosystems Under Stress: Research highlights how Super El Niño can destabilize marine food chains, with knock-on effects for fisheries and coastal livelihoods. Circular Economy Support: ASEAN and East Asia partners launched a circular economy push for SMEs, including a “circular business check” tool to help Indonesian businesses adopt practical sustainability steps. Air Pollution Reality Check: Jakarta is listed among the world’s worst air-quality cities in a separate report, underscoring ongoing public health pressure from pollution. Energy Waste & Methane: Commentary urges action on gas flaring, venting and leaks—calling out methane pollution as a major, fixable climate and health problem.